ICICI Bank · P&S Research

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Analyst Summary

The Call

BUY MEDIUM Strong opportunity

53 /100

Blended Score

Fundamental 59.5

Technical 38.8

Risk / Reward

VERY STRONG MEDIUM conviction

Bear Case

₹1,257

+0.5%

Base Case · 2yr Target

₹1,515

+21.1%

Bull Case

₹1,721

+37.5%

NOW ₹1,251

Bear ₹1,257 Base ₹1,515 Bull ₹1,721

Base R/R

21.1×

Bull R/R

37.5×

Price Targets · Forward Estimates

2yr Target (Base)

₹1,515

+21.1% upside

Bull Case

₹1,721

Bear Case

₹1,257

Scenario	Target (₹, disc.)	Upside	P/BV used	ROE fwd
bear	₹1,257	+0.5%	2.44	1615.0%
base	₹1,515	+21.1%	2.94	1785.0%
bull	₹1,721	+37.5%	3.34	1870.0%

Base Scenario Drivers

Driver	Value	Source
NIM (%)	4.20	Auto
Credit Growth (%)	14.26	Auto
Credit Cost (%)	0.55	Auto
Cost / Income (%)	35.78	Auto
Capital Adequacy (%)	17.07	Auto

Projections (Base)

Metric	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E
PAT (₹ Cr)	34,861	39,832	45,512
EPS (₹)	24.34	27.82	31.78
Book Value / Share	523.5	547.0	573.8
ROE (%)	4.7	5.1	5.5
NII (₹ Cr)	90,912	103,876	118,688

Macro Environment

Macro Factor

1.087×

Environment STRONG TAILWIND

Macro-Adjusted Score

64.7

Macro-Adjusted Target

₹1,607

Sensitivity

1.1×

Rate Environment

+0.8 wt 35%

direction: cutting · cuts 12m: 2

Credit Cycle

+0.0 wt 30%

credit growth pct: 11.1

Global Risk

+0.5 wt 20%

vix: 17.19 · fii net cr: 0.0

Inflation

+1.0 wt 15%

cpi: 3.4 · target: 4.0

Raw score 0.53 × sensitivity 1.10× → factor 1.087×

Data source: macro_latest.json

Peer Comparison

Stock	Score	Model P/BV	Mkt P/BV	Premium	Cal. Target	Upside	Signal
Axis Bank	63.0	1.52×	1.85×	0.32	₹1,268	0.0%	REDUCE
HDFC Bank	54.2	2.53×	2.06×	0.32	₹1,078	+38.4%	BUY
ICICI Bank	59.5	2.62×	2.49×	0.32	₹1,478	+18.1%	BUY
IndusInd Bank	55.8	0.53×	1.13×	0.32	₹715	-24.8%	REDUCE
Kotak Mahindra Bank	56.3	1.36×	2.09×	0.32	₹307	-19.3%	REDUCE

Technical Analysis

AVOID Technical 39/100 Weak technical profile — stand aside on new capital.

Entry Zone

₹1,221 – ₹1,271

Stop Loss

₹1,208

Technical R/R

5.3×

MA 200

₹1,372 (falling) · Below

MA 50

₹1,309 · No golden cross

RSI (14)

38.7 · neutral

Support / Resistance

S ₹1,246 / R ₹1,413 · 0.4% from S

VWAP

₹1,317 · below

Entry Timing Component Scores

Trend

3.0

Momentum

12.5

Distance

12.8

Volume

6.5

Support

4.0

Final Call

BUY ON PULLBACK

Blended Score

53.3/100

Fundamental

59.5/100

Technical

38.8/100

Conviction

LOW

Fundamentals attractive but poor timing — wait for better entry.

Red Flags 3 WATCH

Watch

Earnings per share being diluted by new shares

Watch

Bank borrowing too much from markets

Watch

Returns on assets are declining

Concall Analysis · 12 quarters

Management Tone

strongly deteriorating

Latest Tone Score

46/100

Trend (slope)

-1.000 pts/qtr

Guidance Tracking

✓ 0 Met ★ 0 Beat ✗ 0 Missed

Shareholding Pattern · Mar 2026

FII 34.5% DII 39.9% Public 25.4%

FII

34.5%

DII

39.9%

Public

25.4%

Quarter	Promoter %	FII %	DII %	Public %
Dec 2024	—	45.7	45.0	9.1
Mar 2025	—	45.8	44.8	9.1
Jun 2025	—	46.8	43.9	9.1
Sep 2025	—	45.6	45.1	9.1
Dec 2025	—	43.9	46.7	9.1
Mar 2026	—	34.5	39.9	25.4

Source: Screener.in · As of Mar 2026

Recent News · Impact Analysis

Bank credit growth to ease below 12% in FY27, says ICRA

CNBC-TV18 Apr 23, 2026 MEDIUM Negative Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

ICICI Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Negative

Macro-linked repricing

Medium-term

ROE %

Negative

Macro-linked repricing

Medium-term

ICRA sees India bank credit growth easing to about 11 to 11.7% in 2026 to 27, citing global risks, with asset quality stable and profitability slightly lower but healthy.

Life insurers see double-digit premium growth in March; retail business performance varies

CNBC-TV18 Apr 21, 2026 LOW Positive Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

ICICI Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Positive

NIM sensitivity

Medium-term

Gross NPA %

Positive

Sector-wide spread/NPA drift

Medium-term

Life insurers report strong March premium growth, with Axis Max, ICICI Prudential and LIC showing gains but mixed trends in retail APE performance.

Why Macquarie prefers HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank

CNBC-TV18 Apr 13, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

HDFC Bank — ICICI Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Positive

NIM sensitivity

Medium-term

Gross NPA %

Positive

Sector-wide spread/NPA drift

Medium-term

The call comes at a time when India's banking sector is bracing for a significant margin squeeze.

General insurance March data: ICICI Lombard grows 21% vs industry 8%

CNBC-TV18 Apr 09, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Earnings Immediate · permanent revision

ICICI Bank —

KPI Impact · permanent revision

Net profit

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

EPS

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

ROE %

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

ICICI Lombard leads with 21% March premium growth versus industry 8%, Niva Bupa outperforms health peers, overall general insurance expansion stays moderate.

PSU banks catch up with private peers; ICICI, Axis, and SBI among top picks: Kotak Institutional

CNBC-TV18 Feb 25, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

ICICI Bank — Kotak Mahindra Bank — Axis Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Positive

NIM sensitivity

Medium-term

Gross NPA %

Positive

Sector-wide spread/NPA drift

Medium-term

MB Mahesh, Analyst at Kotak Institutional Equities, sees ICICI Bank and Axis Bank as strong picks among private lenders, while favouring SBI, Bank of Baroda and Union Bank among PSU banks.

Buy HDFC Bank; target of Rs 1,850: ICICI Securities

Moneycontrol Apr 23, 2024 MEDIUM Positive Earnings Immediate · permanent revision

HDFC Bank — ICICI Bank —

KPI Impact · permanent revision

Net profit

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

EPS

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

ROE %

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

ICICI Securities is bullish on HDFC Bank has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,850 in its research report dated April 21, 2024.

Reduce Wipro; target of Rs 410: ICICI Securities

Moneycontrol Apr 23, 2024 LOW Neutral Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

ICICI Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Neutral

NIM sensitivity

Medium-term

Gross NPA %

Neutral

Sector-wide spread/NPA drift

Medium-term

ICICI Securities is bullish on Wipro has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 410 in its research report dated April 21, 2024.

Buy HDFC Life Insurance Company; target of Rs 739: ICICI Securities

Moneycontrol Apr 23, 2024 LOW Neutral Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

HDFC Bank — ICICI Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Neutral

NIM sensitivity

Medium-term

Gross NPA %

Neutral

Sector-wide spread/NPA drift

Medium-term

ICICI Securities is bullish on HDFC Life Insurance Company has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 739 in its research report dated April 21, 2024.