HDFC Bank · P&S Research

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Analyst Summary

The Call

BUY MEDIUM Strong opportunity

50 /100

Blended Score

Fundamental 54.2

Technical 38.8

Risk / Reward

VERY STRONG MEDIUM conviction

Bear Case

₹754

+3.2%

Base Case · 2yr Target

₹947

+21.5%

Bull Case

₹1,132

+45.2%

NOW ₹779

Bear ₹754 Base ₹947 Bull ₹1,132

Base R/R

6.7×

Bull R/R

14.1×

Price Targets · Forward Estimates

2yr Target (Base)

₹947

+21.5% upside

Bull Case

₹1,132

Bear Case

₹754

Scenario	Target (₹, disc.)	Upside	P/BV used	ROE fwd
bear	₹754	-3.2%	2.35	1660.0%
base	₹947	+21.5%	2.85	1660.0%
bull	₹1,132	+45.2%	3.25	1119.0%

Base Scenario Drivers

Driver	Value	Source
NIM (%)	3.70	Auto
Credit Growth (%)	14.24	Auto
Credit Cost (%)	0.55	Auto
Cost / Income (%)	40.37	Auto
Capital Adequacy (%)	19.23	Auto

Projections (Base)

Metric	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E
PAT (₹ Cr)	45,332	51,788	59,164
EPS (₹)	29.45	33.65	38.44
Book Value / Share	399.8	424.7	453.1
ROE (%)	7.4	7.9	8.5
NII (₹ Cr)	134,971	154,194	176,155

Macro Environment

Macro Factor

1.095×

Environment STRONG TAILWIND

Macro-Adjusted Score

59.3

Macro-Adjusted Target

₹1,180

Sensitivity

1.2×

Rate Environment

+0.8 wt 35%

direction: cutting · cuts 12m: 2

Credit Cycle

+0.0 wt 30%

credit growth pct: 11.1

Global Risk

+0.5 wt 20%

vix: 17.19 · fii net cr: 0.0

Inflation

+1.0 wt 15%

cpi: 3.4 · target: 4.0

Raw score 0.53 × sensitivity 1.20× → factor 1.095×

Data source: macro_latest.json

Peer Comparison

Stock	Score	Model P/BV	Mkt P/BV	Premium	Cal. Target	Upside	Signal
Axis Bank	63.0	1.52×	1.85×	0.32	₹1,268	0.0%	REDUCE
HDFC Bank	54.2	2.53×	2.06×	0.32	₹1,078	+38.4%	BUY
ICICI Bank	59.5	2.62×	2.49×	0.32	₹1,478	+18.1%	BUY
IndusInd Bank	55.8	0.53×	1.13×	0.32	₹715	-24.8%	REDUCE
Kotak Mahindra Bank	56.3	1.36×	2.09×	0.32	₹307	-19.3%	REDUCE

Technical Analysis

AVOID Technical 39/100 Weak technical profile — stand aside on new capital.

Entry Zone

₹757 – ₹788

Stop Loss

₹750

Technical R/R

10.1×

MA 200

₹937 (falling) · Below

MA 50

₹821 · No golden cross

RSI (14)

44.3 · neutral

Support / Resistance

S ₹773 / R ₹996 · 0.8% from S

VWAP

₹793 · below

Entry Timing Component Scores

Trend

3.0

Momentum

12.5

Distance

12.8

Volume

6.5

Support

4.0

Final Call

BUY ON PULLBACK

Blended Score

49.6/100

Fundamental

54.2/100

Technical

38.8/100

Conviction

LOW

Fundamentals attractive but poor timing — wait for better entry.

Red Flags 2 HIGH 2 WATCH

High Risk

Profit margins have been shrinking

High Risk

Bad loan ratio is rising

Watch

Earnings per share being diluted by new shares

Watch

Bank borrowing too much from markets

Concall Analysis · 11 quarters

Management Tone

mildly deteriorating

Latest Tone Score

59/100

Trend (slope)

-0.064 pts/qtr

Guidance Credibility

75/100 moderate_credibility

Guidance Tracking

✓ 1 Met ★ 0 Beat ✗ 0 Missed

Guidance vs Actuals

MET

NPA — Q2 FY2025

Gross NPA expected to remain stable; gross slippages at 1.2% better than same period last year

Guided: 1.4 → Actual: 1.33 (-5.0%)

Shareholding Pattern · Mar 2026

FII 44.0% DII 40.1% Public 15.6%

FII

44.0%

DII

40.1%

Public

15.6%

Quarter	FII %	DII %	Public %
Dec 2024	49.2	34.4	16.2
Mar 2025	48.3	35.7	15.8
Jun 2025	48.8	35.8	15.2
Sep 2025	48.4	36.1	15.3
Dec 2025	47.7	37.0	15.1
Mar 2026	44.0	40.1	15.6

Source: Screener.in · As of Mar 2026

Recent News · Impact Analysis

RBI's ECL framework: HDFC Bank to Axis Bank — experts bet high on these five banking stocks

Mint May 09, 2026 HIGH Positive RBI Policy Short-term · 1-4 weeks

HDFC Bank — Axis Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-4 weeks

NIM %

Positive

+5 to +10 bps

Short-term

CASA ratio

Positive

See direction logic

Short-term

⚡ NIM stabilisation → ROA recovery → potential upgrade trigger · Qualitative catalyst — confirm vs peer spread before sizing upside.

The RBI's Expected Credit Loss framework, effective April 2027, mandates earlier recognition of loan losses, potentially differentiating stronger banks from weaker ones. While it may pressure PSU banks initially, it aims to enhance transparency and investor confidence in the long run.

Nifty slips to 24,160, HDFC Bank and Coal India lead losses as oil holds above $101

BusinessLine May 08, 2026 MEDIUM Negative Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

HDFC Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Negative

Macro-linked repricing

Medium-term

ROE %

Negative

Macro-linked repricing

Medium-term

HDFC Bank falls 2.14% to ₹779

Cyber risks rise as AI spots and exploits vulnerabilities in minutes

CNBC-TV18 Apr 30, 2026 MEDIUM Negative Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

HDFC Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Negative

NIM sensitivity

Medium-term

Gross NPA %

Negative

Sector-wide spread/NPA drift

Medium-term

Cyber security experts including leaders from HDFC Bank and National Payments Corporation of India warned that while the cyber attack risks existed earlier, the speed and scale have increased, requiring higher investment, better coordination, and a shift toward building resilient systems across sectors.

Bank asset quality steady, loan growth strong; HDFC Bank may see re-rating: MOFSL

CNBC-TV18 Apr 21, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Earnings Immediate · permanent revision

HDFC Bank —

KPI Impact · permanent revision

Net profit

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

EPS

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

ROE %

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

Nitin Aggarwal, Senior Group VP and Head of BFSI, Institutional Equities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) highlights stable asset quality, strong loan growth across ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, while flagging margins and earnings recovery as key factors to watch in the banking sector.

Exclusive: HDFC Bank board to seek CEO’s reappointment after Law firm's report

CNBC-TV18 Apr 20, 2026 HIGH Positive Management Medium-term · 2-6 months

HDFC Bank —

KPI Impact · 2-6 months

Q1 Management credibility

Positive

±5 pts typical

Medium-term

Q9 Tone trajectory

Positive

±5 pts typical

Medium-term

The board thought to go for the re-appointment only after an unqualified report by the auditors and a clean-chit by the law firms appointed post former Chairman Atanu Chakraborty’s resignation.

Why Macquarie prefers HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank

CNBC-TV18 Apr 13, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

HDFC Bank — ICICI Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Positive

NIM sensitivity

Medium-term

Gross NPA %

Positive

Sector-wide spread/NPA drift

Medium-term

The call comes at a time when India's banking sector is bracing for a significant margin squeeze.

Exclusive: Life insurers see uneven growth as some lag, others outperform in FY26

CNBC-TV18 Apr 10, 2026 MEDIUM Negative Earnings Immediate · permanent revision

HDFC Bank —

KPI Impact · permanent revision

Net profit

Negative

Estimate revision band

Immediate

EPS

Negative

Estimate revision band

Immediate

ROE %

Negative

Estimate revision band

Immediate

Life insurers reported mixed retail APE trends for FY26, with industry growth at around 12%, according to CNBC-TV18 sources. While HDFC Life and ICICI Prudential missed guidance, Axis Max Life and SBI Life met or exceeded expectations.

RBI governor allays fears over HDFC Bank

CNBC-TV18 Apr 08, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Governance Long-term · 6-18 months

HDFC Bank —

KPI Impact · 6-18 months

Q4 Governance quality

Positive

+3 to +8 pts

Long-term

Q1 Management credibility

Positive

+3 to +8 pts

Long-term

“Based on our general supervision, we have not found any material governance or conduct concern in HDFC Bank,” Malhotra said at the presser of the monetary policy committee.