Axis Bank · P&S Research

← Back to Overview

Analyst Summary

The Call

REDUCE VERY_LOW Avoid entry

63 /100

Blended Score

Fundamental 63.0

Technical 64.2

Risk / Reward

POOR VERY_LOW conviction

Bear Case

₹941

+25.8%

Base Case · 2yr Target

₹1,291

+1.8%

Bull Case

₹1,571

+23.9%

NOW ₹1,268

Bear ₹941 Base ₹1,291 Bull ₹1,571

Base R/R

0.1×

Bull R/R

0.9×

Price Targets · Forward Estimates

2yr Target (Base)

₹1,291

+1.8% upside

Bull Case

₹1,571

Bear Case

₹941

Scenario	Target (₹, disc.)	Upside	P/BV used	ROE fwd
bear	₹941	-25.8%	1.35	1311.0%
base	₹1,291	+1.8%	1.85	1449.0%
bull	₹1,571	+23.9%	2.25	1518.0%

Base Scenario Drivers

Driver	Value	Source
NIM (%)	4.02	Auto
Credit Growth (%)	13.17	Auto
Credit Cost (%)	0.55	Auto
Cost / Income (%)	40.00	Auto
Capital Adequacy (%)	17.11	Auto

Projections (Base)

Metric	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E
PAT (₹ Cr)	20,013	22,649	25,632
EPS (₹)	32.17	36.41	41.21
Book Value / Share	718.9	754.9	795.7
ROE (%)	4.5	4.8	5.2
NII (₹ Cr)	57,596	65,181	73,766

Macro Environment

Macro Factor

1.087×

Environment STRONG TAILWIND

Macro-Adjusted Score

68.5

Macro-Adjusted Target

₹1,378

Sensitivity

1.1×

Rate Environment

+0.8 wt 35%

direction: cutting · cuts 12m: 2

Credit Cycle

+0.0 wt 30%

credit growth pct: 11.1

Global Risk

+0.5 wt 20%

vix: 17.19 · fii net cr: 0.0

Inflation

+1.0 wt 15%

cpi: 3.4 · target: 4.0

Raw score 0.53 × sensitivity 1.10× → factor 1.087×

Data source: macro_latest.json

Peer Comparison

Stock	Score	Model P/BV	Mkt P/BV	Premium	Cal. Target	Upside	Signal
Axis Bank	63.0	1.52×	1.85×	0.32	₹1,268	0.0%	REDUCE
HDFC Bank	54.2	2.53×	2.06×	0.32	₹1,078	+38.4%	BUY
ICICI Bank	59.5	2.62×	2.49×	0.32	₹1,478	+18.1%	BUY
IndusInd Bank	55.8	0.53×	1.13×	0.32	₹715	-24.8%	REDUCE
Kotak Mahindra Bank	56.3	1.36×	2.09×	0.32	₹307	-19.3%	REDUCE

Technical Analysis

WAIT Technical 64/100 Mixed signals — prefer confirmation before sizing up.

Entry Zone

₹1,189 – ₹1,238

Stop Loss

₹1,177

Technical R/R

-0.0×

MA 200

₹1,228 (rising) · Above

MA 50

₹1,294 · No golden cross

RSI (14)

43.8 · neutral

Support / Resistance

S ₹1,214 / R ₹1,277 · 4.5% from S

VWAP

₹1,314 · below

Entry Timing Component Scores

Trend

25.5

Momentum

12.5

Distance

9.8

Volume

6.5

Support

10.0

Final Call

REDUCE

Blended Score

63.4/100

Fundamental

63.0/100

Technical

64.2/100

Conviction

MEDIUM

Maintain REDUCE bias — technical overlay does not override fundamentals.

Red Flags 3 WATCH

Watch

Earnings per share being diluted by new shares

Watch

Bank borrowing too much from markets

Watch

Returns on assets are declining

Concall Analysis · 12 quarters

Management Tone

mildly improving

Latest Tone Score

66/100

Trend (slope)

+0.318 pts/qtr

Guidance Credibility

75/100 moderate_credibility

Guidance Tracking

✓ 1 Met ★ 0 Beat ✗ 0 Missed

Guidance vs Actuals

MET

NIM — Q3 FY2025

Through-cycle NIM guidance of 3.8% remains intact; management confident in defending 13 bps excess over guidance

Guided: 3.8 → Actual: 3.98 (+4.7%)

Shareholding Pattern · Mar 2026

Promoter 8.1% FII 42.0% DII 43.4% Public 6.4%

Promoter

8.1%

FII

42.0%

DII

43.4%

Public

6.4%

Quarter	Promoter %	FII %	DII %	Public %
Dec 2024	8.2	47.3	37.5	7.0
Mar 2025	8.2	43.9	40.9	7.0
Jun 2025	8.2	43.8	41.2	6.8
Sep 2025	8.2	41.9	42.9	7.1
Dec 2025	8.2	42.6	42.6	6.6
Mar 2026	8.1	42.0	43.4	6.4

Source: Screener.in · As of Mar 2026

Recent News · Impact Analysis

RBI's ECL framework: HDFC Bank to Axis Bank — experts bet high on these five banking stocks

Mint May 09, 2026 HIGH Positive RBI Policy Short-term · 1-4 weeks

HDFC Bank — Axis Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-4 weeks

NIM %

Positive

+5 to +10 bps

Short-term

CASA ratio

Positive

See direction logic

Short-term

⚡ NIM stabilisation → ROA recovery → potential upgrade trigger · Qualitative catalyst — confirm vs peer spread before sizing upside.

The RBI's Expected Credit Loss framework, effective April 2027, mandates earlier recognition of loan losses, potentially differentiating stronger banks from weaker ones. While it may pressure PSU banks initially, it aims to enhance transparency and investor confidence in the long run.

Axis Bank trims headcount by 3,000 in FY26 amid tech-led efficiency gains

CNBC-TV18 Apr 27, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Earnings Immediate · permanent revision

Axis Bank —

KPI Impact · permanent revision

Net profit

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

EPS

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

ROE %

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

Axis Bank cut about 3,000 jobs in FY26 as tech and digital investments boosted productivity, even as it added 400 branches and grew advances 19% and deposits 14%.

Axis Finance to raise ₹2,250 crore from Axis Bank, Kedaara Capital to fund growth

CNBC-TV18 Apr 25, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Earnings Immediate · permanent revision

Axis Bank —

KPI Impact · permanent revision

Net profit

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

EPS

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

ROE %

Positive

Estimate revision band

Immediate

Axis Finance will raise ₹2,250 crore through a rights issue and preferential allotment to Kedaara Capital, strengthening its capital base and supporting expansion across retail, MSME and wholesale lending segments.

A $40 billion fund manager advises investors to deploy money in the market

CNBC-TV18 Apr 09, 2026 LOW Positive Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

Axis Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Positive

Macro-linked repricing

Medium-term

ROE %

Positive

Macro-linked repricing

Medium-term

The market correction has made valuations reasonable in many sectors, according to Shreyash Devalkar, Head of Equity, Axis Mutual Fund.

Axis Mutual Fund’s problems start at the top

CNBC-TV18 Mar 23, 2026 MEDIUM Negative Management Medium-term · 2-6 months

Axis Bank —

KPI Impact · 2-6 months

Q1 Management credibility

Negative

±5 pts typical

Medium-term

Q9 Tone trajectory

Negative

±5 pts typical

Medium-term

Three CIOs in 10 years have tried to improve the performance of its funds and to lure new investors. Will the fourth one be the charm?

February life insurance data: Axis Max Life, Canara HSBC lead; SBI Life, LIC see base-driven gains

CNBC-TV18 Mar 09, 2026 LOW Negative Earnings Immediate · permanent revision

HDFC Bank — Axis Bank —

KPI Impact · permanent revision

Net profit

Negative

Estimate revision band

Immediate

EPS

Negative

Estimate revision band

Immediate

ROE %

Negative

Estimate revision band

Immediate

Life insurers reported strong February numbers. Axis Max Life’s premiums rose 30%, Canara HSBC Life’s jumped 52%, and LIC’s increased 24%. HDFC Life saw a 3% decline.

PSU banks catch up with private peers; ICICI, Axis, and SBI among top picks: Kotak Institutional

CNBC-TV18 Feb 25, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months

ICICI Bank — Kotak Mahindra Bank — Axis Bank —

KPI Impact · 1-3 months

NIM %

Positive

NIM sensitivity

Medium-term

Gross NPA %

Positive

Sector-wide spread/NPA drift

Medium-term

MB Mahesh, Analyst at Kotak Institutional Equities, sees ICICI Bank and Axis Bank as strong picks among private lenders, while favouring SBI, Bank of Baroda and Union Bank among PSU banks.