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Kotak Mahindra Bank KOTAKBANK REDUCE ₹380.80 Updated 2026-05-10
Analyst Summary
The Call
REDUCE VERY_LOW Avoid entry
50 /100
Blended Score
Fundamental 56.3
Technical 36.8
Risk / Reward
POOR VERY_LOW conviction
Bear Case
₹218
+42.7%
Base Case · 2yr Target
₹310
+-18.6%
Bull Case
₹383
+0.7%
NOW ₹381
Bear ₹218 Base ₹310 Bull ₹383
-0.4×
0.0×
Price Targets · Forward Estimates
₹310
-18.6% upside
₹383
₹218
ScenarioTarget (₹, disc.)UpsideP/BV usedROE fwd
bear ₹218 -42.7% 1.19 1292.0%
base ₹310 -18.6% 1.69 1428.0%
bull ₹383 +0.7% 2.09 1496.0%
Base Scenario Drivers
DriverValueSource
NIM (%) 5.00 Auto
Credit Growth (%) 16.88 Auto
Credit Cost (%) 0.55 Auto
Cost / Income (%) 40.00 Auto
Capital Adequacy (%) 20.80 Auto
Projections (Base)
Metric FY2027EFY2028EFY2029E
PAT (₹ Cr) 14,007 16,372 19,136
EPS (₹) 14.08 16.45 19.23
Book Value / Share 195.8 211.8 230.6
ROE (%) 7.2 7.8 8.3
NII (₹ Cr) 38,114 44,550 52,071
Macro Environment
1.079×
TAILWIND
60.7
₹331
1.0×
Rate Environment
+0.8 wt 35%
direction: cutting · cuts 12m: 2
Credit Cycle
+0.0 wt 30%
credit growth pct: 11.1
Global Risk
+0.5 wt 20%
vix: 17.19 · fii net cr: 0.0
Inflation
+1.0 wt 15%
cpi: 3.4 · target: 4.0
Raw score 0.53 × sensitivity 1.00× → factor 1.079×
Data source: macro_latest.json
Peer Comparison
Stock Score Model P/BV Mkt P/BV Premium Cal. Target Upside Signal
Axis Bank 63.0 1.52× 1.85× 0.32 ₹1,268 0.0% REDUCE
HDFC Bank 54.2 2.53× 2.06× 0.32 ₹1,078 +38.4% BUY
ICICI Bank 59.5 2.62× 2.49× 0.32 ₹1,478 +18.1% BUY
IndusInd Bank 55.8 0.53× 1.13× 0.32 ₹715 -24.8% REDUCE
Kotak Mahindra Bank 56.3 1.36× 2.09× 0.32 ₹307 -19.3% REDUCE
Technical Analysis
AVOID Technical 37/100 Weak technical profile — stand aside on new capital.
₹370 – ₹385
₹366
-5.1×
MA 200
10
₹408 (falling) · Below
MA 50
20
₹381 · No golden cross
RSI (14)
50
52.7 · neutral
Support / Resistance
85
S ₹378 / R ₹424 · 0.8% from S
VWAP
45
₹376 · above
Entry Timing Component Scores
3.0
12.5
12.8
4.5
4.0
REDUCE
50.4/100
56.3/100
36.8/100
MEDIUM
Maintain REDUCE bias — technical overlay does not override fundamentals.
Red Flags 1 HIGH 2 WATCH
High Risk
Profit margins have been shrinking
Watch
Earnings per share being diluted by new shares
Watch
Bank borrowing too much from markets
Concall Analysis · 12 quarters
Management Tone
mildly deteriorating
Latest Tone Score
44/100
Trend (slope)
-0.706 pts/qtr
100/100 high_credibility
✓ 0 Met ★ 1 Beat ✗ 0 Missed
Guidance vs Actuals
BEAT
NIM — Q4 FY2023
Bank expects to maintain NIM at 5% plus handle for FY2023-24, based on current interest rate environment
Guided: 5.0 → Actual: 5.32 (+6.4%)
Shareholding Pattern · Mar 2026
Promoter 25.9% FII 26.4% DII 36.2% Public 11.5%
25.9%
26.4%
36.2%
11.5%
Quarter Promoter % FII % DII % Public %
Dec 2024 25.9 32.5 28.8 12.8
Mar 2025 25.9 32.6 29.1 12.3
Jun 2025 25.9 32.3 29.6 12.2
Sep 2025 25.9 29.8 32.0 12.3
Dec 2025 25.9 29.4 32.9 11.9
Mar 2026 25.9 26.4 36.2 11.5
Source: Screener.in · As of Mar 2026
Recent News · Impact Analysis
Buzzing stocks: Lenskart, South Indian Bank, PNC Infratech, Cochin Shipyard, Deep Industries
BusinessLine May 08, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months
Kotak Mahindra Bank —
KPI Impact · 1-3 months
NIM %
Positive
NIM sensitivity
Medium-term
Gross NPA %
Positive
Sector-wide spread/NPA drift
Medium-term
Indian markets are expected to track key corporate developments on Friday, including RBI approval for Kotak Mahindra Bank’s South Indian Bank stake acquisition, PNC Infratech’s Lucknow project win, and fresh business orders and legal updates involving several listed firms
Banks likely to post steady Q4 results, but pressure remains on margins and PSU lenders
CNBC-TV18 Apr 09, 2026 HIGH Neutral Earnings Immediate · permanent revision
Kotak Mahindra Bank —
KPI Impact · permanent revision
Net profit
Neutral
Monitor filings
Immediate
EPS
Neutral
Monitor filings
Immediate
ROE %
Neutral
Monitor filings
Immediate
MB Mahesh, Analyst at Kotak Institutional Equities says the January-March quarter of 2026 (Q4FY26) bank earnings will remain steady, with modest growth but pressure on margins, tight liquidity and divergence between private and public sector undertaking (PSU) banks shaping performance.
Haryana police at Kotak and AU Small Fin Bank branches; Kotak pays ₹120 cr in Municipal Corp case
CNBC-TV18 Mar 30, 2026 HIGH Negative Governance Long-term · 6-18 months
Kotak Mahindra Bank —
KPI Impact · 6-18 months
Q4 Governance quality
Negative
-5 to -15 pts
Long-term
Q1 Management credibility
Negative
-5 to -15 pts
Long-term
Haryana probes suspected unauthorised transactions as police secure AU Small Finance Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank in Panchkula; Kotak pays about 120 crore.
Kotak report shows household deposits slow in Q3 as banks face funding pressures
CNBC-TV18 Mar 04, 2026 MEDIUM Negative Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months
Kotak Mahindra Bank —
KPI Impact · 1-3 months
NIM %
Negative
NIM sensitivity
Medium-term
Gross NPA %
Negative
Sector-wide spread/NPA drift
Medium-term
Household deposit growth in India's banks stayed modest in 3QFY26, says Kotak Institutional Equities. Public banks hold 70% of these deposits. Rural and semi-urban markets grew faster.
PSU banks catch up with private peers; ICICI, Axis, and SBI among top picks: Kotak Institutional
CNBC-TV18 Feb 25, 2026 MEDIUM Positive Macro Medium-term · 1-3 months
ICICI Bank — Kotak Mahindra Bank — Axis Bank —
KPI Impact · 1-3 months
NIM %
Positive
NIM sensitivity
Medium-term
Gross NPA %
Positive
Sector-wide spread/NPA drift
Medium-term
MB Mahesh, Analyst at Kotak Institutional Equities, sees ICICI Bank and Axis Bank as strong picks among private lenders, while favouring SBI, Bank of Baroda and Union Bank among PSU banks.